Euro 2016: Can France win at home again?

 

It’s been 18 years since France last hosted a major tournament and expectation levels will be just as high this time round.

In 1998, France stuffed a dismal Brazil 3-0 in the World Cup final and they enter Euro 2016 not only as hosts but as favourites too.

Most bookmakers have them priced at 3/1 about the win, with Germany (9/2), Spain (5/1) and England (9/1) as alternatives.

The French certainly have a heap of pressure on them – not least because they lack a star striker after Karim Benzema’s suspension from the national team.

Olivier Giroud is the obvious candidate to fill the void left by Benzema, with the Arsenal striker’s goalscoring record of 17 in 49 games bettering Benzema’s 27 in 81 in percentage terms.

Giroud still has his critics and although he lacks star quality he is often underestimated in terms of pure goalscoring ability and will certainly score his fair share this summer.

Antoine Griezmann has also emerged as a world-class forward option for France and is capable of playing on either wing or in behind the striker where he has been so effective for Atletico Madrid.

But Les Bleus’ midfield really catches the eye.

Premier League duo N’Golo Kante and Dimitri Payet have each staked a claim for a starting place in the tournament opener against Romania on June 10, but France boss Didier Deschamps will most likely call upon stars Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi to dominate the midfield battle.

However, the French defence looks a little suspect with five of the selected eight defenders over the age of 30 and with no stand-out leader amongst them.

The back-line also lacks pace with only Lucas Digne and Bacary Sagna quick enough to resist Europe’s slickest wingers.

Les Bleus will therefore count on captain Hugo Lloris to be in top form during the tournament after his excellent season with Premier League side Spurs.

Lloris has established himself as one of the most coveted goalkeepers in Europe and will be a formidable presence between the sticks as France look to emulate their success of 1984 in winning their home European Championships.

Standing in their way will be Germany, who look a good price to secure their second successive major tournament win off the back of their World Cup triumph in Brazil two years ago.

Given their wealth of creative options in midfield and up front, the Germans seem to have been underestimated and will feel aggrieved not to be seen as the favourites heading into the tournament.

Like the French, their main weakness lies in defence after a raft of retirements following the World Cup.

Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng will form a strong central defensive partnership but there is little to shout about in the full-back positions and it is in those areas where their opponents will hope to make inroads.

Spain have undoubtedly the strongest defence in the championship with a back line of Jordi Alba, Sergio Ramos, Gerard Pique and Juanfran.

If coach Vicente del Bosque can withdraw his blind preference for goalkeeper Iker Casillas and choose David de Gea instead, Spain will have a monstrous back five.

The main problem for Spain is their lack of strikers.

Chelsea hitman Diego Costa has been unconvincing at international level and does not travel to France, leaving Spain’s main striking options as Alvaro Morata, Aritz Aduriz and Pedro.

Much will hinge on the power of their midfield in the defence of their title, with Andres Iniesta, Cesc Fabregas and David Silva all likely to start and the industry of Koke a helpful balance to an attack-minded engine room.

Then there is England, a definite outside shot but a team unlikely to make it past the semi-finals.

They have one of the youngest squads on show in France but their defence, like so many others, is a telling flaw and one which is likely to be exploited in ruthless fashion.

The promise of attacking trio Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy and Dele Alli is something to savour for England boss Roy Hodgson but his main dilemma is accommodating captain Wayne Rooney in the same team.

The most sensible option is to play him in deep midfield and give him a controlling influence on the game, but Hodgson is still keen to play him in a number ten role which harms the effectiveness of Alli.

Still, this is England’s most exciting team for some time and they will be aiming to right the wrongs of the World Cup.

But, for the overall win it is hard to pick France in favour of Germany. The German midfield has an embarrassment of riches and despite their defensive frailties they will be devastating going forward – just too good for the competition.

You can follow me on Twitter @NeilWalton89 and WordPress: neilwalton089

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