Ferguson retirement opens door for Moyes

“Football, Bloody Hell.”

Those were the immediate thoughts of the soon-to-be knighted Alex Ferguson in the aftermath of Manchester United’s iconic 2-1 victory against Bayern Munich in the 1999 Champions League Final at Camp Nou.

Goals in the dying minutes, first from Teddy Sheringham and then sensationally from Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, gave the club a second European Cup triumph.

It was Ferguson’s first European title at the Old Trafford club – but his thirst would prove to be unquenchable.

He would go on to manage arguably the biggest club in the world for 14 more seasons, collecting 38 trophies in all before announcing his retirement this morning.

United are now left with a gaping hole in their managerial hot seat – a hole that might never disappear completely.

The white-hot favourite to succeed Ferguson is David Moyes who, at 1/20 on with some bookmakers, is expected to be announced as the 71-year-old’s successor in a matter of hours.

But is Moyes really the best candidate for the job?

Ferguson’s fellow Glaswegian has managed current side Everton for 11 years on a restricted budget – in fact his rule at the Merseyside club is the third-longest in the Premier League as it stands.

Moyes has long enjoyed a pleasant relationship with Ferguson, and has often accepted advice on his career from the outgoing United boss.

Additionally, United are thought to be keen to employ a manager who bears the same managerial traits as their beloved retiree.

This would place Moyes in a strong position due to his loyalty and willingness to involve young players in first team matches – indeed it was Moyes who gave 16-year-old Wayne Rooney his Premier League debut in 2002.

Further strings to Moyes’ bow include his knowledge of the Premier League and his man-management skills, but several serious blotches on the 50-year-old’s CV mean that he will be a massive gamble to a club of United’s pedigree.

With just a handful of European games (most of those in the Europa League) as manager of Everton, Moyes has a minute amount of experience in a footballing environment – as proved by the successes of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund – that is rapidly evolving.

His Champions League experience stops short of the competition proper, with a disappointing 4-2 aggregate defeat to Villarreal in the third qualifying round in 2005 providing further reinforcement to those who believe he is under-qualified for the United job.

Then there is the fact that Moyes has never won a trophy in his managerial career.

Arguably, this is hardly surprising given the finite resources he has at Everton, but that record would normally be unacceptable for a club of United’s history, especially given the rich success that Ferguson has enjoyed.

Signing Moyes might also dissuade big-name players from joining the club in the future too.

Past signings have spoken of their admiration for Ferguson, the club and the supporters, but would reported United targets such as James Rodriguez and Robert Lewandowski actually be convinced enough by Moyes as a manager to sign?

Transfer pulling-power aside, Moyes has never had a massive transfer budget at his disposal and should he get the United job it will be a test of his nous as a manager to make astute signings.

A warning has already been cast by his current arch-rivals Liverpool, who delved deeply into their pockets at then manager Kenny Dalglish’s behest to acquire the services of Andy Carroll for £35m, Stewart Downing for £20m and Jordan Henderson for £16m – all of whom have failed to light up Anfield since their arrival, with Carroll even joining West Ham on loan this season.

Such ill judgements were indicative of a man who had never had as much money to spend before – but will Moyes, when faced with the same scenario, prove just as foolhardy in the transfer market?

His transfer history at Everton suggests otherwise, having bought well over his decade at the club to secure the signatures of players such as Marouane Fellaini, Mikel Arteta, Kevin Mirallas and Leighton Baines.

Despite being the overwhelming favourite for the United hot seat, Moyes has competition from Jose Mourinho and Jürgen Klopp.

Mourinho, just days before Ferguson’s announcement to retire, seemed destined to leave Real Madrid for Chelsea.

That does appear to be where the flamboyant Portuguese will end up, especially a lack of endurance at former clubs suggests his short-term stints are at odds with United’s wish for a long-term manager.

Then there is Borussia Dortmund’s Klopp, an exciting young German manager who has wrestled with the might of Bayern Munich in his home country to produce successive Bundesliga titles and a Champions League final this season.

At 45, Klopp has exhibited the tactical awareness and innovation needed to dismantle sides such as Real Madrid, even destroying Bayern 5-2 in the German DFB-Pokal Cup final last season.

Yet Klopp, who is at the forefront of the German revolution in the Champions League, is contracted to Dortmund for another season and has little experience of the English game.

United fans would be impressed by his tendency to create sides with attacking flair and defensive diligence, but Klopp is unlikely to be considered with Moyes so close to being chosen as Ferguson’s successor.

So the 1/20 price appears to have Moyes’ name all but announced as the next United boss, but will his lack of experience in European competition and a trophy less cabinet eventually prove costly?

Or will the skills displayed during his time at Everton evolve into those fit for the helm at Old Trafford?

Manchester United already seem to know the answers to those questions.

Cüneyt Cakir, the stage is yours

It is said that good referees are invisible for the duration of a football match.

Yesterday night, Turkish official Cüneyt Cakir was anything but.

Maybe that was down to the 36-year-old’s garish turquoise shirt? Unfortunately for him, it wasn’t.

Mr Cakir created a frenzy of disbelief inside Old Trafford when, with Manchester United 2-1 up on aggregate against Real Madrid in the Champions League last 16, he sent Luis Nani off for serious foul play.

United were incensed because the decision allowed Madrid back into the game, before they cruelly killed the hosts off with two goals in three minutes from Luka Modric and ex-United star Cristiano Ronaldo.

To the letter of the law, Cakir was probably correct to show a straight red. Nani’s right boot made contact with Madrid right-back Alvaro Arbeloa’s rib cage in an aerial duel and after a brief break in play to allow both players to gather themselves, Cakir brandished red.

FIFA’s law 12 on fouls and misconduct provides that “A player is guilty of serious foul play if he uses excessive force or brutality against an opponent when challenging for the ball.”

So, Nani was justifiably sent off? Perhaps not.

It is widely held throughout the global footballing community that part of the art of refereeing is the official’s ability to apply the laws of the game with judgement of the footballing situation in question.

With the ball coming over Nani’s shoulder, the Portuguese winger’s eyes were fixated on the ball, with Arbeloa making a late entrance onto the scene. There was no intent to commit “excessive force or brutality” on Nani’s part.

Does there have to be? Once more, perhaps not. Taking everything into consideration, most referees would have realised that it was a 50/50 challenge, there was no malice involved, and that it had not been a high-tempered match up to that point.

This makes Cakir’s decision all the more robotic – and he has previous history.

Cakir, an insurer with a love of table tennis, became an elite referee in the 2007/08 season, and has since officiated several matches in the European Championships, Champions League, Europa League and Club World Cup.

What is immediately recognisable when glancing through his record is that, in the 134 games he has refereed since the 28th of March 2007, he has failed to give a card in just four of those games.

The plot thickens further when Cakir’s habits are examined more closely, and how predictable his style of officiating is.

Cakir would have first come to the attention of English fans when he officiated Chelsea’s 4-1 win over Spartak Moscow in the 2010/11 Champions League. It was a straightforward match to referee, with only four bookings dished out.

His next European match came three months later – a Europa League tie between Villarreal and Napoli which finished 2-1 to the hosts. It was marred by nine bookings, six of those coming in the second half.

Exactly three weeks later he sent off Manchester City’s Mario Balotelli in the same competition,  booking eight other players as City went out 2-1 on aggregate to Dynamo Kiev, despite winning 1-0 on the night.

Such a high volume of bookings means that Cakir’s style of refereeing is to adhere as closely to FIFA’s rulebook as possible.

Perhaps he enjoys the limelight when he flashes cards about. For certain, it is an inorganic approach to refereeing, and the statistics reinforce that point.

Last season, Cakir took charge of 34 games in the domestic Turkish Superlig and both elite European competitions.

He managed to show 172 yellow cards in that time, complete with nine red cards for good measure.

Across the 34 games, that is an average of 5.32 cards per game – an unusually high figure.

Those who have followed Cakir’s eye-catching refereeing since that time will have noticed his style of observing the match and the players in it during the first half, before unleashing a flurry of cards in the second period.

Last season he showed 61.3% of all his cards in the second half, and there were some high-profile matches during that time.

The infamous 2-2 draw between Barcelona and Chelsea at Camp Nou was famous for John Terry’s needless sending-off – a decision which Cakir got right – and the fractious nature of the match, with an additional eight players booked.

In Cakir’s homeland, the notorious Istanbul derby between Fenerbahce and Galatasaray is almost always an ill-tempered affair. So it proved in 2012 too, when Cakir sent off two players and booked 12 others.

His form continues into the current 2012/13 season when, after officiating just 25 games, he has already sent off eight players in all competitions, and has brandished 110 yellow cards.

That is an average of 4.72 cards per game – again, an unusually high figure.

When his performances are compared to that of England’s most card-happy referee, Martin Atkinson, Cakir’s super-strict manner is exposed again.

Atkinson has taken charge of 27 matches in all competitions this season, amassing a total of 107 cards, just one of which has been red. His average of 3.96 cards per game is a staggering 0.76 cards beneath the level of his Turkish colleague.

Cakir’s performances also seem to be more negatively prolific as the profile of the match amplifies. In his first major international tournament – Euro 2012 – he only officiated three games.

Yet, he still managed to brandish 18 yellows and one red, 13 of those coming in the second half and nine coming in the derby between Portugal and Spain. Ireland’s Keith Andrews was the man dismissed in a 2-0 loss against Italy.

In a World Cup Qualifying match between England and Ukraine, under three months later, Cakir showed 10 cards, sending off Steven Gerrard in the 1-1 draw at Wembley with (yes, you guessed it) all 10 of the bookings coming in the second half.

Cakir has also sent off Sergio Busquets for Barcelona in the Champions League this season, and Gary Cahill for Chelsea in the Club World Cup final. He now has Nani to add to that list of big, game-changing decisions.

With atmospheres no more hostile than those in his homeland, you would think Cakir has the necessary mental qualities in a referee to officiate in the biggest of occasions. All the matters discussed in this blog seem to suggest otherwise, but still FIFA and UEFA continue to give him high-profile games.

Perhaps that’s because he is a limpet to the rulebook. With that in mind, does he do a good or a bad job?

Does the fact that he gives a high amount of cards mean that he sees fouls no other referee does and should therefore be given credit for doing so?

One thing that seems certain is that Cakir will officiate at his first World Cup in Brazil next summer, and because of his latest attention-grabbing decision the weight of one billion eyes will be upon him.

If he continues to make similarly mechanical decisions in Brazil, he should probably turn his hand to officiating table tennis matches instead.